{"id":90833,"date":"2026-05-18T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2026-05-18T10:01:25","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T10:01:25","slug":"%d8%b3%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%88%d9%84%d9%88%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%88%d9%84-%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%b9%d9%85-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d9%83%d9%8a%d9%81-%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%ae%d8%b0-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/ar\/%d9%85%d8%af%d9%88%d9%86%d8%a9\/%d8%b3%d9%8a%d9%83%d9%88%d9%84%d9%88%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%88%d9%84-%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%b9%d9%85-%d9%84%d8%a7-%d9%83%d9%8a%d9%81-%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%ae%d8%b0-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0639\u0645\/\u0644\u0627: \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u062a\u062e\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a\u0647\u0645 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\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631. \u0648\u0642\u062f \u0623\u062b\u0628\u062a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0628\u062d\u0627\u062b \u0641\u064a \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0632\u062f\u0648\u062c\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u0635\u0627\u063a\u0647\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0627\u0644 \u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0634\u0645\u0648\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0645\u0644\u0647 \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 1 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 2 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0643\u064a\u0631\u060c \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0634\u0631 \u0644\u062f\u064a\u0647\u0645 \u0637\u0631\u064a\u0642\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633\u064a\u062a\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0644\u0625\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0643: \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639\u0629 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\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0641\u0628\u0633\u0628\u0628 \u0628\u0633\u0627\u0637\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u064a\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0641\u0647\u064a \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0646\u0638\u0627\u0645 1\u060c \u0648\u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0627\u0644\u064a \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0623\u0633\u0631\u0639\u060c \u0645\u0639 \u0642\u062f\u0631 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0628\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0623\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0623\u0639\u0644\u0649.   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0628\u0631\u0631\u0647\u0627 \u062f\u0627\u0626\u0645\u064b\u0627. \u062a\u0643\u0634\u0641 <strong>\u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0639\u0645\/\u0644\u0627<\/strong> \u0639\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0637\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u062e\u0644\u0642 \u0648\u0647\u0645\u064b\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0646: \u0641\u0627\u0644\u0633\u0624\u0627\u0644 \u201d\u0647\u0644 \u0633\u064a\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0647\u0630\u0627\u061f\u201d \u064a\u0628\u062f\u0648 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0625\u062c\u0627\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u201d\u0628\u0623\u064a \u0633\u0639\u0631 \u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0630\u0627\u061f \u064a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u0642\u0646\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0642\u0648\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0644\u062f\u064a\u0647\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0623\u0641\u0636\u0644\u060c \u0648\u0644\u0643\u0646 \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0647\u064a\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0624\u0627\u0644 \u064a\u062c\u0639\u0644 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0647\u0645 \u064a\u0628\u062f\u0648 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0648 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647.  <\/p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/us.macmillan.com\/books\/9780374533557\/thinkingfastandslow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0645\u0627\u0646\u060c \u062f. (2011). \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0643\u064a\u0631\u060c \u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639 \u0648\u0628\u0637\u064a\u0621. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.  <\/a><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u0646\u062e\u0631\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0641\u064a <strong>\u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u060c<\/strong> \u0641\u0625\u0646\u0647\u0645 \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0633\u0645\u062d \u0628\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0631\u064a\u0639\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u062f\u0648\u0646 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0643\u0627\u0645\u0644\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a. \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0645\u0647\u064a\u0645\u0646\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u064a\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0646\u0639\u0645\/\u0644\u0627: <\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062f\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u062b\u064a\u0644\u064a: <\/strong>\u064a\u062d\u0643\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0646\u0627\u0621\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u062f\u0649 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\u0644\u0648 \u0644\u0645 \u064a\u0643\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0643 \u0623\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644\u064a \u0644\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u062f\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0641\u0631: <\/strong>\u062a\u0646\u062d\u0627\u0632 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0646\u062d\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0633\u0647\u0644 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0631\u062c\u0627\u0639\u0647\u0627 \u0630\u0647\u0646\u064a\u064b\u0627. \u064a\u0635\u0628\u062d \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062e\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0651\u060c \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0623\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u0631\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0645\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0643\u064a 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<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>\u062a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0647\u0630\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0631\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u062a\u0635\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0645\u0627\u063a \u0645\u0635\u0645\u0645 \u0644\u062a\u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0641\u0627\u0621\u0629 \u0648\u0644\u064a\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u0629. \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0648\u0645\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062a\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u062c\u064a\u062f \u0628\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u0641\u0627\u064a\u0629. \u0623\u0645\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0645\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0635\u0646\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u062a\u062d\u062f\u062f \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0627\u064a\u0631\u0629 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\u062a\u0639\u0632\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u062a\u062c \u0639\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062e\u0644\u0635 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u063a\u0645\u0648\u0636\u060c \u064a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u0639\u0646\u0647 \u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u062a\u0636\u062e\u0645\u0629 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0646\u0647\u062c\u064a. \u064a\u0639\u062a\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0635\u0648\u0627\u0628 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u064a\u0627\u0646 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0645\u0645\u0627 \u0647\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u064a\u0647\u060c \u0648\u064a\u0631\u062c\u0639 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062c\u0632\u0626\u064a\u064b\u0627 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0628\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0624\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u062c\u0639\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0647\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0639\u0648\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0646.   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u0648\u062c\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0628\u062d\u062b \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u0623\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u0628\u0627\u0631\u0628\u0631 \u0648\u0623\u0648\u062f\u064a\u0627\u0646 \u062d\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0631\u0637\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a\u0646 \u064a\u062a\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0645\u0641\u0631\u0637\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u064a\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0643\u0631\u0631 \u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u0648\u064a\u0643\u0633\u0628\u0648\u0646 \u0639\u0648\u0627\u0626\u062f \u0645\u0639\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u062d\u0633\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631 \u0623\u0642\u0644 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u064a\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0642\u0644 \u062b\u0642\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0645\u0637 \u0630\u0648 \u0635\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0641\u0647\u0645 \u0623\u0646\u0645\u0627\u0637 \u062d\u062c\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629. \u0625\u0646 <strong>\u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0639\u0645\/\u0644\u0627<\/strong> \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0631\u0637\u0629 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0627\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629. <\/p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/qje\/article\/116\/1\/261\/1939000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Barber, B. &amp; Odean, T. (2001). Boys Will Be Boys: \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0646\u0633\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0647\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u062f\u064a\u0629. Quarterly Journal of Economics.  <\/a><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u0625\u0633\u0646\u0627\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c: \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0647\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0638 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0643\u064a\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u064a\u0639\u0632\u0648 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 <strong>\u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a<\/strong> \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c <strong>\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u060c<\/strong> \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0647\u0627\u0631\u062a\u0647\u0645 \u0623\u0648 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u062f\u0641\u0629\u060c \u062a\u0634\u0643\u0644 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\u0643\u0627\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629 \u0639\u0634\u0648\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639\u0629 \u0648\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629.  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0633\u0646\u0627\u062f \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062b\u0644 (\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u064a\u0632 \u0644\u062e\u062f\u0645\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u0627\u062a) \u0645\u0648\u062b\u0642 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0645\u0648\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643\u064a \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0646\u0634\u0637 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u0627\u0626\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0638\u064a\u0641 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\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629.   <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%d8%af%d9%88%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%81%d9%88%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%aa%d8%af%d8%a7%d9%88%d9%84-%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%b9%d9%85-%d9%84\"><strong>\u062f\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0639\u0645\/\u0644\u0627<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0634\u0639\u0648\u0631 \u0628\u0623\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0636\u0639\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0639\u0648\u0631 \u0628\u0645\u062a\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0628\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0641\u0626 \u062a\u0642\u0631\u064a\u0628\u064b\u0627\u060c \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u0648\u062d\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0643\u062b\u0631 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631\u064b\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0646\u0641\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644. \u0641\u064a <strong>\u0633\u064a\u0643\u0648\u0644\u0648\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0628\u0646\u0639\u0645\/\u0644\u0627\u060c<\/strong> \u064a\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u064a\u0632 \u0628\u0648\u0636\u0648\u062d \u062e\u0627\u0635 \u0644\u0623\u0646 \u0647\u064a\u0643\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u064a\u0632\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0648\u0633\u064a\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0633\u0645\u062d \u0628\u062a\u0623\u062c\u064a\u0644 \u0623\u0648 \u0625\u062f\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629. <\/p>\n\n<p>\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0642\u0644\u064a\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0641\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0630\u064a \u062e\u0633\u0631 20% \u0645\u0646 \u0635\u0641\u0642\u0629 \u0644\u0645 \u064a\u062d\u0642\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0639\u062f. \u0641\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632 \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0632\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u0641\u062a\u0648\u062d\u064b\u0627. \u064a\u0648\u0644\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0645\u0627\u063a\u060c \u0628\u062f\u0627\u0641\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629\u060c \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u0642\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0625\u063a\u0644\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u062d\u0642\u064a\u0642\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0647\u064a \u0638\u0627\u0647\u0631\u0629 \u062a\u0646\u062a\u062c \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0635\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u062b\u0642 \u062c\u064a\u062f\u064b\u0627\u060c \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062d\u062a\u0641\u0638 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0635\u0641\u0642\u0627\u062a \u062e\u0627\u0633\u0631\u0629 \u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0629 \u062c\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0648\u064a\u063a\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u0642\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0627\u0628\u062d\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0642\u062a \u0645\u0628\u0643\u0631 \u062c\u062f\u064b\u0627. \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629 \u062a\u0644\u063a\u064a \u0647\u0630\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u064a\u0627\u0631. \u0639\u0646\u062f\u0645\u0627 \u064a\u062d\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u062f\u062b\u060c \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u062a\u0633\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u064a\u062c\u0629. \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0648\u062c\u062f \u201d\u0627\u0646\u062a\u0638\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u062a\u0631\u0642\u0628\u201d. \u0644\u0627 \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0623\u0646 \u064a\u0639\u0628\u0631 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644<\/strong> \u0639\u0646 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u0647 \u0643\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0641\u0627\u0638 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0627\u0643\u0632 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0648\u0627\u0642 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u0629\u061b \u0641\u0647\u0648 \u064a\u0639\u0628\u0631 \u0639\u0646 \u0646\u0641\u0633\u0647 \u0628\u062f\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0645\u0646 \u0630\u0644\u0643 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0648\u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0648\u0643 \u0628\u0639\u062f \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0633\u0645 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0634\u0631\u0629.     <\/p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/1914185\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tversky, A. &amp; Kahneman, D. (1979). \u0646\u0638\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0642\u0639: \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0638\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062e\u0627\u0637\u0631. Econometrica.  <\/a><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u0643\u064a\u0641 \u064a\u0624\u062b\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062f\u062e\u0648\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0648\u0642<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u062e\u0648\u0644 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0648\u0642\u0641 \u062b\u0646\u0627\u0626\u064a\u060c \u064a\u062a\u062c\u0644\u0649 <strong>\u0627\u0644\u0646\u0641\u0648\u0631 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0633\u0627\u0631\u0629<\/strong> \u0641\u064a \u0635\u0648\u0631\u0629 \u062a\u0634\u0648\u064a\u0647 \u0644\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0648\u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f\u064b\u0627 \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u062a\u0631\u062c\u064a\u062d \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u064a\u0631\u0629 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\u062a\u0634\u0648\u0647\u0627\u062a \u064a\u0645\u0643\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0628\u0647\u0627. \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062f\u062e\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0628 \u0641\u064a \u0635\u0641\u0642\u0627\u062a \u201d\u0646\u0639\u0645\u201d \u0630\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0636\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0623\u062d\u062f\u0627\u062b \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0645\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0643\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0636\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0629 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u062d\u062a\u0645\u0644\u0629\u060c \u0648\u062d\u0631\u0643\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0633\u0639\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u062f\u064a\u062f\u0629\u060c \u0644\u0623\u0646 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\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644\u060c<\/strong> \u0648\u0647\u064a: \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0631\u0637\u0629\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062d\u064a\u0632 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0623\u0643\u064a\u062f\u064a\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u062b\u0628\u064a\u062a. <\/p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.penguinrandomhouse.com\/books\/227815\/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tetlock, P. &amp; Gardner, D. (2015). \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624 \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u0642: \u0641\u0646 \u0648\u0639\u0644\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0624. 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class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u062a\u062e\u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u0625\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u064a\u0629\u060c \u0623\u064a \u0633\u0647\u0648\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a\u060c \u0644\u0647\u0627 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u062b\u0642 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062b\u0642\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0641\u0636\u064a\u0644. \u062d\u064a\u062b \u064a\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0643\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0639\u0644\u0648\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u062a\u0645 \u0645\u0639\u0627\u0644\u062c\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0642\u0629 \u0639\u0644\u0649 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