{"id":90835,"date":"2026-05-18T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-18T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/blog\/product\/%e6%98%af-%e5%90%a6%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e3%80%8b%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%80%85%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%8d%e7%a1%ae%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8b%e5%81%9a%e5%87%ba\/"},"modified":"2026-05-18T10:01:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-18T10:01:34","slug":"%e6%98%af-%e5%90%a6%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e3%80%8b%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%80%85%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%8d%e7%a1%ae%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8b%e5%81%9a%e5%87%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/blog\/%e6%98%af-%e5%90%a6%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e5%bf%83%e7%90%86%e5%ad%a6%e3%80%8b%ef%bc%9a%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%80%85%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%9c%a8%e4%b8%8d%e7%a1%ae%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8b%e5%81%9a%e5%87%ba\/","title":{"rendered":"\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"785\" height=\"390\" src=\"https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Blog_cover_2.png\" alt='\u4e00\u4e2a\u4eba\u7ad9\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u591c\u665a\u7684\u5c94\u8def\u53e3\uff0c\u9762\u5bf9\u7167\u660e\u7684 \"YES \"\u548c \"NO \"\u6807\u5fd7\uff0c\u8c61\u5f81\u7740\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u6ed1\u5761\u7b49\u6311\u6218\u3002' class=\"wp-image-90744\" style=\"width:800px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Blog_cover_2.png 785w, https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Blog_cover_2-480x238.png 480w, https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Blog_cover_2-768x382.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 785px) 100vw, 785px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><br><\/h3>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"\"><\/h2>\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u300b\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong><\/h1>\n\n<p>\u6bcf\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7ed3\u6784\u90fd\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7f6e\u4e8e\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\u3002\u201d<strong>\u662f\/\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u7684<\/strong>\u552f\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u67d0\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd<strong>\u4ea4\u6613<\/strong>\u5c06\u51b3\u7b56\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u8ba4\u77e5\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4ef7\u683c\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u6b62\u635f\u6821\u51c6\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u5c0f\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u627f\u8bfa\u3002     <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u4e0d\u662f\u8868\u9762\u73b0\u8c61\u3002\u5b83\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u65b9\u5f0f\u3001\u6fc0\u6d3b\u4e86\u54ea\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u3001\u5982\u4f55\u5904\u7406\u635f\u5931\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u91cd\u8fd4\u4e0b\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u3002<strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/strong>\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u884c\u4e3a\u9886\u57df\uff0c<strong>\u662f<\/strong>\u7531\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u8bba\u3001\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u548c\u98ce\u9669\u795e\u7ecf\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u672c\u6587\u63a2\u8ba8\u4e86<strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong>\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u7ed3\u6784\uff1a\u5f53\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u9762\u4e34 \u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u65f6\uff0c\u5934\u8111\u4e2d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1b\u5728\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u4e2d\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u65b9\u5f0f\u8fd0\u4f5c\u7684\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f62\u5f0f\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0d\u4ec5\u4e0d\u4f1a\u4f7f\u51b3\u7b56\u762b\u75ea\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4f1a\u52a0\u901f\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%e6%98%af-%e5%90%a6%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e5%af%b9%e5%86%b3%e7%ad%96%e7%9a%84%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d\"><strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u5bf9\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p><strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/strong>\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\uff0c\u4e8c\u5143\u6846\u67b6\u53ef\u4ee5\u51cf\u5c11\u8ba4\u77e5\u8d1f\u8377\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4f9d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\uff1b\u6ca1\u6709\u4eba\u77e5\u9053\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u67d0\u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u671d\u7740\u67d0\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u9009\u4e3e\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u662f\u8ba4\u77e5\u4efb\u52a1\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u4f30\u8ba1\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u505a\u51fa\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5224\u65ad\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u533a\u522b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8ba4\u77e5\u8d1f\u8377\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a\u51b3\u7b56\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u76f4\u63a5\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4e39\u5c3c\u5c14-\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\uff08Daniel Kahneman\uff09\u5728\u5176\u5173\u4e8e\u7cfb\u7edf 1 \u548c\u7cfb\u7edf 2 \u601d\u7ef4\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u6700\u5168\u9762\u5730\u9610\u8ff0\u4e86\u53cc\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8be5\u7406\u8bba\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u6709\u4e24\u79cd\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a\u5feb\u901f\u7684\u76f4\u89c9\u5904\u7406\uff08\u7cfb\u7edf 1\uff09\u548c\u7f13\u6162\u7684\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651\u5206\u6790\uff08\u7cfb\u7edf 2\uff09\u3002\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u51b3\u7b56\u9700\u8981\u4ef7\u683c\u76ee\u6807\u4f30\u8ba1\u3001\u4ed3\u4f4d\u5927\u5c0f\u3001\u6b62\u635f\u4f4d\u7f6e\u548c\u6301\u7eed\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u9700\u8981\u7cfb\u7edf 2 \u5904\u7406\u3002\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56\u7531\u4e8e\u7ed3\u6784\u7b80\u5355\uff0c\u66f4\u9002\u5408\u7cfb\u7edf 1 \u5904\u7406\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u51b3\u7b56\u901f\u5ea6\u66f4\u5feb\uff0c\u65e0\u9700\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651\uff0c\u521d\u59cb\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e5f\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5e76\u4e0d\u603b\u662f\u6709\u9053\u7406\u7684\u3002<strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/strong>\u63ed\u793a\uff0c\u4e8c\u5143\u6846\u67b6\u53ef\u4ee5\u9020\u6210\u4e00\u79cd\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u9519\u89c9\uff1a\u5373\u4f7f\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u201d\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5417\uff1f\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5e26\u7740\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u4fe1\u5ff5\u8fdb\u5165\u4e8c\u5143\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u95ee\u9898\u7ed3\u6784\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u611f\u89c9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/us.macmillan.com\/books\/9780374533557\/thinkingfastandslow\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kahneman, D. (2011).\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u5feb\u4e0e\u6162\u300b\u3002Farrar, Straus and Giroux.  <\/a><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u8ba4\u77e5\u6377\u5f84<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5f53\u4ea4\u6613\u8005<strong>\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong>\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8ba4\u77e5\u6377\u5f84\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0d\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u4fe1\u606f\u5904\u7406\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u5feb\u901f\u4f30\u8ba1\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5728 \u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6709\u4e09\u79cd\u6377\u5f84\u5c24\u4e3a\u91cd\u8981\uff1a <\/p>\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\uff1a <\/strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6839\u636e\u5f53\u524d\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0e\u5df2\u77e5\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u8fc7\u53bb\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u6765\u5224\u65ad\u6982\u7387\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u8fde\u7eed\u4e09\u6b21\u51b3\u7b56\u90fd\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5c31\u4f1a\u4e0d\u81ea\u89c9\u5730\u5938\u5927\u7b2c\u56db\u6b21\u51b3\u7b56\u4e5f\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u76f8\u540c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u79cd\u9884\u671f\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u5206\u6790\u4f9d\u636e\u3002 <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\uff1a <\/strong>\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u504f\u5411\u4e8e\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u5934\u8111\u4e2d\u68c0\u7d22\u5230\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u751f\u52a8\u7684\u8fd1\u671f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u51b2\u51fb\u3001\u620f\u5267\u6027\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u5728\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u53d8\u5f97\u53ef\u7528\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u9ad8\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u611f\u77e5\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u4e0e\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u65e0\u5173\u3002 <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u60c5\u7eea\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\uff1a <\/strong>\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u72b6\u6001\u4f1a\u6c61\u67d3\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5982\u679c\u521a\u521a\u8fde\u7eed\u8d62\u4e86\u51e0\u7b14 \u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\uff0c\u5c31\u4f1a\u5728\u79ef\u6781\u60c5\u7eea\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u81f4\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u79ef\u6781\u60c5\u7eea\u4f1a\u5938\u5927\u4e50\u89c2\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002  <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6377\u5f84\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5927\u8111\u7684\u6784\u9020\u662f\u4e3a\u4e86\u63d0\u9ad8\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u8db3\u591f\u6709\u6548\u3002\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\uff0c\u7ecf\u8fc7\u6821\u51c6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u51b3\u5b9a\u4e86\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u7cfb\u7edf\u8bef\u5dee\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bef\u5dee\u4f1a\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\u6bb5\u91cd\u590d\u51fa\u73b0\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%e4%ba%8c%e8%bf%9b%e5%88%b6%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%9c%e5%a6%82%e4%bd%95%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%80%85%e7%9a%84%e8%a1%8c%e4%b8%ba\"><strong>\u4e8c\u8fdb\u5236\u7ed3\u679c\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p><strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613<\/strong>\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u4e0d\u4ec5\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u8fd8\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u611f\u53d7\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8fd9\u4e9b\u611f\u53d7\u5bf9\u540e\u7eed\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5728\u8fde\u7eed\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u5934\u5bf8\u53ef\u80fd\u90e8\u5206\u83b7\u5229\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u51fa\u9519\uff0c\u5e76\u65e0\u9650\u671f\u5730\u5904\u4e8e\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u7684\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u800c\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u679c\u5219\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8981\u4e48\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u6ca1\u6709\u53d1\u751f\u3002\u5408\u7ea6\u7ed3\u7b97\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u7eb8\u9762\u635f\u5931\u9700\u8981\u5408\u7406\u5316\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u5e73\u5747\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u7b49\u5f85\u4ef7\u683c\u56de\u5347\u3002    <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u7ec8\u7ed3\u6027\u5177\u6709\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u7279\u5f81\u3002\u5b83\u4f7f\u6bcf\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u5b8c\u5168\u7ed3\u675f\uff0c\u8fd9\u5728\u8ba4\u77e5\u548c\u60c5\u611f\u4e0a\u90fd\u6709\u522b\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u655e\u53e3\u5934\u5bf8\u7684\u957f\u671f\u3001\u6a21\u7cca\u66b4\u9732\u3002\u5e73\u4ed3\u4e0e\u8bb0\u5fc6\u4e2d\u66f4\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u7f16\u7801\u3001\u66f4\u660e\u786e\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u53cd\u5e94\u4ee5\u53ca\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u51b3\u7b56\u51c6\u5907\u6709\u5173\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>\u5c3a\u5bf8<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>\u662f\/\u5426 \u4e8c\u8fdb\u5236\u51b3\u5b9a<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>\u5f00\u653e\u5f0f\u5e02\u573a\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u95ee\u9898\u7ed3\u6784<\/td><td>X \u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5417\uff1f\u662f\u6216\u5426 <\/td><td>X \u7684\u4ef7\u683c\/\u7ea7\u522b\u662f\u591a\u5c11\uff1f<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u8ba4\u77e5\u8d1f\u8377<\/td><td>\u4f4e-\u5355\u4e00\u6982\u7387\u5224\u65ad<\/td><td>\u9ad8 - \u9700\u8981\u4f30\u7b97\u5e45\u5ea6<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u51b3\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4<\/td><td>\u66f4\u5feb - \u6743\u8861\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\u66f4\u5c11<\/td><td>\u901f\u5ea6\u8f83\u6162 - \u9700\u8981\u5904\u7406\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u606f<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u6a21\u5f0f<\/td><td>\u9ad8-\u4e8c\u5143\u6846\u67b6\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5e7b\u89c9<\/td><td>\u9002\u5ea6 - \u5f00\u653e\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5957\u671f\u4fdd\u503c<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\u89e6\u53d1\u5668<\/td><td>\u5373\u65f6-\u7ed3\u679c\u5168\u6709\u6216\u5168\u65e0<\/td><td>\u6e10\u8fdb - \u635f\u5931\u968f\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u52a8\u800c\u7d2f\u79ef<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u951a\u5b9a\u98ce\u9669<\/td><td>\u5f3a\u52bf - \u5f53\u524d\u6982\u7387\u951a\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613<\/td><td>\u5f3a\u52bf - \u5f53\u524d\u4ef7\u683c\u951a\u5b9a\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u8fdb\u5165<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u6210\u679c\u540e\u7684\u60c5\u7eea<\/td><td>\u7d27\u5f20 - \u4e8c\u8fdb\u5236\u51b3\u8bae\u662f\u6700\u7ec8\u51b3\u8bae<\/td><td>\u6df7\u5408 - \u5f00\u653e\u5f0f\u804c\u4f4d\u5141\u8bb8\u5408\u7406\u5316<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e8c\u8fdb\u5236\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\u7684\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u95ee\u9898<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u662f<strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u51b3\u7b56\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/strong>\u4e2d\u6700\u53ef\u9760\u3001\u6700\u6613\u91cd\u590d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u7ed3\u679c\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u81f4\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8d4b\u4e88\u7684\u6982\u7387\u8981\u9ad8\u4e8e\u57fa\u51c6\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4e8c\u5143\u6846\u67b6\u4f1a\u653e\u5927\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7f29\u5c0f\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u673a\u5236\u5f88\u7b80\u5355\uff1a\u5f53\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4e8c\u8fdb\u5236\u65f6\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u7b54\u6848\u3002\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4f30\u8ba1\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6982\u7387\u6216\u65f6\u95f4\uff1b\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u76f8\u4fe1\u6982\u7387\u8d85\u8fc7 50%\u3002\u8f83\u4f4e\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u95e8\u69db\u52a0\u4e0a\u6d88\u9664\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u5938\u5927\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u6b21\u6570\u6bd4\u5b9e\u9645\u60c5\u51b5\u8981\u591a\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u8ba9\u4ed6\u4eec\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u611f\u5230\u786e\u5b9a\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<p>Barber\u548cOdean\u5bf9\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u9891\u7387\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6bd4\u4e0d\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4ea4\u6613\u66f4\u9891\u7e41\uff0c\u83b7\u5f97\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u8c03\u6574\u6536\u76ca\u4e5f\u66f4\u4f4e\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e0e\u7406\u89e3\u4e8c\u5143\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u6a21\u5f0f\u76f4\u63a5\u76f8\u5173\u3002<strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406<\/strong>\u5c06\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u9ad8\u53c2\u4e0e\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u9ad8\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/qje\/article\/116\/1\/261\/1939000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Barber, B. &amp; Odean, T. (2001)\u3002Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment.\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5b63\u520a\u300b\u3002  <\/a><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7ed3\u679c\u5f52\u56e0\uff1a\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d\u7684\u6280\u5de7\u4e0e\u8fd0\u6c14<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5982\u4f55<strong>\u5c06\u4ea4\u6613<\/strong>\u7ed3\u679c<strong>\u4e2d\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong>\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6280\u80fd\u6216\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5f71\u54cd\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u6821\u51c6\u548c\u957f\u671f\u98ce\u9669\u627f\u62c5\u3002\u4e8c\u5143\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\u5927\u591a\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u6280\u5de7\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u9009\u62e9\u6b63\u786e\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u8bc1\u5b9e\u4e86\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5206\u6790\u3002\u4e8f\u635f\u5219\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u5f52\u56e0\u4e8e\u5076\u7136\u6027\uff1a\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u3001\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u975e\u5bf9\u79f0\u5f52\u56e0\uff08\u81ea\u5229\u504f\u5dee\uff09\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u91d1\u878d\u5b66\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u5145\u5206\u7684\u8bc1\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u4e8c\u5143\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u5c24\u4e3a\u6d3b\u8dc3\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u6bcf\u79cd\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u6700\u7ec8\u89e3\u51b3\u90fd\u662f\u5e72\u51c0\u5229\u843d\u7684\uff0c\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6784\u5efa\u51fa\u4e00\u79cd\u4e8b\u540e\u53d9\u8ff0\u3002\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u5c06\u83b7\u80dc\u5f52\u529f\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u89e3\u8bfb\u3002\u800c\u8f93\u4e86\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5219\u4f1a\u56de\u5fc6\u8d77\u8fb9\u7f18\u60c5\u51b5\u3001\u610f\u5916\u53d1\u5c55\u548c \u201d\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\u201d\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u6027\u4f1a\u5938\u5927\u81ea\u6211\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684\u6280\u80fd\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u6539\u5584\u5b9e\u9645\u6821\u51c6\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bb8\u591a\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5c3d\u7ba1\u6709\u957f\u671f\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u5374\u4ecd\u7136\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%e6%8d%9f%e5%a4%b1%e8%a7%84%e9%81%bf%e5%9c%a8%e6%98%af-%e5%90%a6%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e4%bd%9c%e7%94%a8\"><strong>\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\u5728\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u8ba4\u77e5\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u635f\u5931\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u611f\u53d7\u5927\u7ea6\u662f\u5bf9\u540c\u7b49\u6536\u76ca\u7684\u5feb\u4e50\u611f\u53d7\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u6240\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66\u4e2d\u6700\u5177\u5f71\u54cd\u529b\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u504f\u89c1\u3002\u5728<strong>\u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406<\/strong>\u4e2d\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5c24\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u4e2d\u95f4\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4f7f\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u5f97\u4ee5\u5ef6\u8fdf\u6216\u63a7\u5236\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u4f20\u7edf\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\u4e0b\u8dcc\u4e86 20%\uff0c\u4ed6\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u635f\u5931\u3002\u5934\u5bf8\u4ecd\u672a\u5e73\u4ed3\u3002\u5728\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\u7684\u9a71\u4f7f\u4e0b\uff0c\u5927\u8111\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5e73\u4ed3\u548c\u63a5\u53d7\u771f\u5b9e\u635f\u5931\u4ea7\u751f\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u62b5\u5236\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u73b0\u8c61\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u6709\u636e\u53ef\u67e5\u7684\u5904\u7f6e\u6548\u5e94\uff0c\u5373\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6301\u6709\u4e8f\u635f\u5934\u5bf8\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8fc7\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u8fc7\u65e9\u5e73\u4ed3\u83b7\u80dc\u5934\u5bf8\u3002\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u679c\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u5f53\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u65f6\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u5c31\u5df2\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u2019\u7b49\u5f85\u548c\u89c2\u671b\u2019\u3002<strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f<\/strong>\u4e0d\u80fd\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5143\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u6301\u4ed3\u884c\u4e3a\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u5b83\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u4ea4\u6613\u524d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u7ed3\u675f\u540e\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\u3002     <\/p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/1914185\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tversky, A. &amp; Kahneman, D. (1979).Prospect Theory\uff1a\u98ce\u9669\u4e0b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5206\u6790\u300b\u3002Econometrica.  <\/a><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u5165\u5e02\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5728\u8fdb\u5165\u4e8c\u5143\u5934\u5bf8\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c<strong>\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f<\/strong>\u8868\u73b0\u4e3a\u6982\u7387\u5931\u771f\uff0c\u5177\u4f53\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u8fc7\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u5bf9\u4e2d\u9ad8\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u8fc7\u4f4e\u3002\u6839\u636e\u524d\u666f\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u6982\u7387\u52a0\u6743\u51fd\u6570\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4eba\u7c7b\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u5938\u5927\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff08\u56e0\u6b64\u957f\u7ebf\u8d4c\u6ce8\u5f88\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u8d2c\u4f4e70%-80%\u6982\u7387\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u611f\u77e5\u4ef7\u503c\uff08\u611f\u89c9\u6ca1\u6709\u6570\u5b57\u663e\u793a\u7684\u90a3\u4e48\u786e\u5b9a\uff09\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728 \u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u53ef\u9884\u89c1\u7684\u626d\u66f2\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u620f\u5267\u6027\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u52a8\u8361\u3001\u6781\u7aef\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6ce2\u52a8\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u4e0d\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5730\u8fdb\u5165\u4f4e\u6982\u7387\u7684 \u201d\u662f \u201d\u4ed3\u4f4d\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5c0f\u6982\u7387\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7ed9\u4eba\u7684\u611f\u89c9\u662f\u60c5\u7eea\u4e0a\u6bd4\u5206\u6790\u4e0a\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u5bf9\u9ad8\u6982\u7387\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u7ecf\u5e38\u56de\u907f\u6982\u7387\u5728 70% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a 30% \u7684\u6982\u7387\u611f\u89c9\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e0b\u8dcc\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u6821\u51c6\u5931\u8d25\u4e0d\u80fd\u4ec5\u9760\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6765\u7ea0\u6b63\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u4e5f\u4f1a\u6301\u7eed\u5b58\u5728\u6982\u7387\u52a0\u6743\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5728\u4e00\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5185\u6536\u5230\u5173\u4e8e\u5176\u6821\u51c6\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u53cd\u9988\u3002\u5728<strong>\u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u7684<\/strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e0d\u8ddf\u8e2a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80dc\u7387\u4e0e\u5b9e\u9645\u80dc\u7387\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u65e0\u8bba\u4ea4\u6613\u65f6\u95f4\u957f\u77ed\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u91cd\u590d\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u626d\u66f2\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u89e3\u51b3\u540e\u7684\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\uff1a\u91cd\u542f\u6548\u5e94<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e8c\u8fdb\u5236\u7ed3\u679c\u5bf9\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e0d\u5229\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u6d88\u5931\u3002\u5b83\u91cd\u65b0\u6210\u4e3a\u633d\u56de\u635f\u5931\u7684\u5f3a\u5927\u52a8\u529b\uff0c\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a \u201d\u76c8\u4e8f\u5e73\u8861\u6548\u5e94\u201d\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u6548\u5e94\u4e0b\uff0c\u56de\u5230\u5148\u524d\u53c2\u8003\u70b9\u7684\u613f\u671b\u538b\u5012\u4e86\u5bf9\u4e0b\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u7406\u6027\u6982\u7387\u8bc4\u4f30\u3002\u8fd9\u662f \u201d<strong>\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/strong>\u4e2d\u6700\u660e\u663e\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u89e3\u51b3\u4e4b\u524d\u5931\u53bb\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5c31\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u8fdb\u5165\u65b0\u7684\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u6295\u5165\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8d4c\u6ce8\uff0c\u5176\u52a8\u529b\u4e0d\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u5206\u6790\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u5bf9\u633d\u56de\u635f\u5931\u7684\u7d27\u8feb\u611f\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u5bf9\u51b3\u7b56\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u975e\u5e38\u4e25\u91cd\u3002\u5728\u633d\u56de\u635f\u5931\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u662f\u5728\u60c5\u7eea\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4ea2\u594b\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\uff0c\u6982\u7387\u6821\u51c6\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5934\u5bf8\u89c4\u6a21\u901a\u5e38\u6bd4\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u6b63\u5e38\u89c4\u6a21\u8981\u5927\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7ec4\u5408\u6070\u597d\u4e3a\u6269\u5927\u635f\u5931\u800c\u975e\u633d\u56de\u635f\u5931\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u6761\u4ef6\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><em>\u201d\u5931\u53bb\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u5927\u7ea6\u662f\u540c\u7b49\u6536\u83b7\u7684\u5feb\u4e50\u7684\u4e24\u500d\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u5bf9\u79f0\u4e0d\u4f1a\u968f\u7740\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u79ef\u7d2f\u800c\u6d88\u5931-\u5b83\u5fc5\u987b\u901a\u8fc7\u7ed3\u6784\u6765\u52a0\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u201d\u3002<\/em><strong>- \u7279\u6c83\u65af\u57fa\u548c\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\uff0c\u300a\u524d\u666f\u7406\u8bba\u300b\uff081979 \u5e74\uff09<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%e4%ba%8b%e4%bb%b6%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%8d%e7%a1%ae%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e5%86%b3%e7%ad%96\"><strong>\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>\u6240\u6709\u91d1\u878d\u51b3\u7b56\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u7684\uff0c\u4f46<strong>\u5728<\/strong>\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d<strong>\u786e\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong>\u6709\u5176\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u6709\u522b\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u5728\u4ef7\u683c\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\u3001\u53c2\u6570\u5316\u7684\uff1b\u95ee\u9898\u4e0d\u5728\u4e8e\u4ef7\u683c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u53d8\u52a8\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e8e\u53d8\u52a8\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u4f1a\u4e0d\u65ad\u66f4\u65b0\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u662f\u5206\u7c7b\u7684\uff1a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8981\u4e48\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u4e0d\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7ed3\u6784\u5f80\u5f80\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u5224\u65ad\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6eda\u52a8\u9884\u6d4b\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u533a\u522b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4eba\u7c7b\u8ba4\u77e5\u5bf9\u5206\u7c7b\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u53c2\u6570\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5904\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e0d\u540c\u3002<strong>\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u5fc3\u7406\u5b66<\/strong>\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u533a\u5206 \u201d\u98ce\u9669\u201d\uff08\u5df2\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u548c \u201d\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u201d\uff08\u672a\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff09\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u662f\u6a21\u7cca\u538c\u6076\u8005\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f3a\u70c8\u503e\u5411\u4e8e\u5df2\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u7684\u8d4c\u535a\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u7684\u8d4c\u535a\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5df2\u77e5\u6982\u7387\u662f\u4e0d\u5229\u7684\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e0e\u98ce\u9669\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u63a5\u8fd1\u4e8e\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\uff1b\u7279\u5b9a\u653f\u6cbb\u7ed3\u679c\u3001\u516c\u53f8\u51b3\u7b56\u6216\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5177\u6709\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u629b\u63b7\u786c\u5e01\u5219\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8fdb\u884c\u9519\u8bef\u5206\u7c7b\uff08\u5c06\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u5f53\u4f5c\u8ba1\u7b97\u51fa\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff09\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u5730\u5bf9\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u8fc7\u4e8e\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e13\u5bb6\u76f4\u89c9\u4e0e\u6821\u51c6\u6982\u7387\u7684\u4f5c\u7528<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u83f2\u5229\u666e-\u6cf0\u7279\u6d1b\u514b\uff08Philip Tetlock\uff09\u5bf9\u4e13\u5bb6\u653f\u6cbb\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u4e3a\u8d85\u7ea7\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u4e3a\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0b\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6700\u4e25\u8c28\u7684\u5b9e\u8bc1\u6846\u67b6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u7279\u7279\u6d1b\u514b\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u4e13\u5bb6\u9884\u6d4b\u8005\u5728\u957f\u671f\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u51e0\u4e4e\u4e0d\u6bd4\u5076\u7136\u6027\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u7279\u5b9a\u5b50\u96c6\u7684 \u201d\u8d85\u7ea7\u9884\u6d4b\u8005 \u201d\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u5374\u59cb\u7ec8\u4f18\u4e8e\u5076\u7136\u6027\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4ea4\u6613\u6709\u76f4\u63a5\u5173\u7cfb\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8d85\u7ea7\u9884\u6d4b\u5e08\u533a\u522b\u4e8e\u666e\u901a\u9884\u6d4b\u5e08\u7684\u7279\u70b9\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u9886\u57df\u4e13\u957f\u6216\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e60\u60ef\uff1a\u79ef\u6781\u5bfb\u627e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u4ee5\u6821\u51c6\u7684\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u53e3\u5934\u7c7b\u522b\uff08\u201d\u53ef\u80fd\u201d\u3001\u201d\u5927\u6982\u201d\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u5230\u6765\u9010\u6b65\u66f4\u65b0\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\u8ddf\u8e2a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e60\u60ef\u76f4\u63a5\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86<strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong>\u4e2d\u6700\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\uff1a\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u3001\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u951a\u5b9a\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.penguinrandomhouse.com\/books\/227815\/superforecasting-by-philip-e-tetlock-and-dan-gardner\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tetlock, P. &amp; Gardner, D. (2015)\u3002\u8d85\u7ea7\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u827a\u672f\u4e0e\u79d1\u5b66\u300b\u3002\u7687\u51a0\u51fa\u7248\u793e\u3002  <\/a><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\u548c\u4ea4\u6613\u9891\u7387<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u627f\u53d7\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4e2a\u4f53\u5dee\u5f02\u662f\u51b3\u5b9a<strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613<\/strong>\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\u9ad8\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u6ca1\u6709\u5b8c\u6574\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u4e5f\u80fd\u81ea\u5982\u5730\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u5e76\u80fd\u51b7\u9759\u5730\u63a5\u53d7\u6a21\u68f1\u4e24\u53ef\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u7cbe\u786e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u51b3\u8bae\u540e\u60c5\u7eea\u5347\u7ea7\u3002\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\u4f4e\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u5c06\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56\u70b9\u89c6\u4e3a\u98ce\u9669\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u8f83\u5f3a\u7684\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5728\u635f\u5931\u540e\u51fa\u73b0\u5f3a\u8feb\u6027\u51b3\u7b56\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e2a\u4f53\u5dee\u5f02\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0d\u53d8\u7684\u3002\u4e34\u5e8a\u51b3\u7b56\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5bb9\u5fcd\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u7ec3\u4e60\u6765\u57f9\u517b\uff1a\u53cd\u590d\u63a5\u89e6\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u6821\u51c6\u8d28\u91cf\u8fdb\u884c\u6709\u6761\u7406\u7684\u53cd\u601d\u3002\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6839\u636e\u7ed3\u679c\u7cfb\u7edf\u5730\u5ba1\u67e5\u5176\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7b80\u5355\u5730\u5ba1\u67e5\u76c8\u4e8f\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u63a8\u79fb\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u5efa\u7acb\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u7684\u5185\u90e8\u6982\u7387\u6a21\u578b\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%e4%b8%ba%e4%bd%95%e7%ae%80%e7%ba%a6%e8%83%bd%e6%8f%90%e9%ab%98%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e6%b4%bb%e8%b7%83%e5%ba%a6\"><strong>\u4e3a\u4f55\u7b80\u7ea6\u80fd\u63d0\u9ad8\u4ea4\u6613\u6d3b\u8dc3\u5ea6<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<p>\u4e0e\u590d\u6742\u7684\u5f00\u653e\u5f0f\u5e02\u573a\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u6784\u80fd\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u7387\uff0c\u201d<strong>\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406<\/strong>\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e00\u539f\u56e0\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u660e\u786e\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff1a\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u6784\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u8fdb\u5165\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ea4\u6613\u51b3\u7b56\u6240\u9700\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6fc0\u6d3b\u80fd\u91cf\u66f4\u5c11\u3002<\/p>\n\n<p>\u5728\u884c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e \u201d\u51b3\u7b56\u6469\u64e6 \u201d\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u6709\u5173\uff0c\u5373\u610f\u5411\u4e0e\u884c\u52a8\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u3001\u60c5\u611f\u548c\u7a0b\u5e8f\u969c\u788d\u3002\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u6761\u989d\u5916\u4fe1\u606f\u3001\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u989d\u5916\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u53c2\u6570\u3001\u6267\u884c\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u4e2a\u989d\u5916\u6b65\u9aa4\uff0c\u90fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u6469\u64e6\uff0c\u964d\u4f4e\u610f\u56fe\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u884c\u52a8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u3002\u4e8c\u5143\u95ee\u9898\u6d88\u9664\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6469\u64e6\uff1a\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u6267\u884c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u9009\u62e9\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u660e\u786e\u7684\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u6d41\u7545\u6027\u548c\u51b3\u7b56\u4fe1\u5fc3<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u8ba4\u77e5\u6d41\u7545\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u5904\u7406\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u96be\u6613\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5bf9\u4fe1\u5fc3\u548c\u504f\u597d\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u662f\u6709\u636e\u53ef\u67e5\u7684\u3002\u4e0e\u9700\u8981\u8d39\u529b\u5904\u7406\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6d41\u7545\u5904\u7406\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u53ef\u4fe1\u3001\u66f4\u719f\u6089\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u3002\u5728 \u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e8c\u5143\u95ee\u9898\u683c\u5f0f\uff08\u201dX \u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5417\uff1f\u201d\uff09\u7684\u6d41\u7545\u6027\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u79cd\u611f\u89c9\u6e05\u6670\u3001\u53ef\u5224\u5b9a\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u4f53\u9a8c\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u76f4\u63a5\u8f6c\u5316\u4e3a\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u4fe1\u5fc3\u548c\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u6267\u884c\u901f\u5ea6\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u672c\u8eab\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e0d\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff1a\u771f\u6b63\u7b80\u5355\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u7406\u5e94\u8ba9\u4eba\u66f4\u6709\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<strong>\u5f53\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406<\/strong>\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5c06\u95ee\u9898\u683c\u5f0f\u7684\u6d41\u7545\u6027\u4e0e\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u6df7\u4e3a\u4e00\u8c08\uff0c\u5c06 \u201d\u6211\u53d1\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u51b3\u5b9a \u201d\u4f5c\u4e3a \u201d\u6211\u51b3\u5b9a\u6b63\u786e \u201d\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\u65f6\uff0c\u95ee\u9898\u5c31\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6d41\u7545\u5ea6\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u6821\u51c6\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u533a\u522b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u7406\u89e3\u957f\u671f\u4ea4\u6613\u884c\u4e3a\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u666f\u89c2<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4e86\u89e3<strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56\u4e2d<\/strong>\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u5404\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8ba9\u8fd0\u8425\u5546\u8bbe\u8ba1\u51fa\u66f4\u516c\u5e73\u3001\u66f4\u900f\u660e\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba9\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u8bc6\u522b\u51fa\u6700\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u54cd\u5176\u51b3\u7b56\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u7279\u5b9a\u8ba4\u77e5\u6a21\u5f0f\uff1a<\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u51fa\u73b0<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>\u884c\u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1<\/td><td>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6839\u636e\u8868\u9762\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c\u5206\u914d 80% \u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6982\u7387<\/td><td>\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1b\u8d4c\u6ce8\u8fc7\u5927<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f<\/td><td>\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u751f\u52a8\u7ed3\u679c\uff08\u5927\u8d62\u6216\u5927\u8f93\uff09\u4e3b\u5bfc\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1<\/td><td>\u5ffd\u7565\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\uff1b\u8ffd\u9010\u6216\u56de\u907f\u8fd1\u671f\u6a21\u5f0f<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u951a\u5b9a<\/td><td>\u5f53\u524d\u5e02\u573a\u4ef7\u683c\u6210\u4e3a\u9ed8\u8ba4\u6982\u7387\u53c2\u8003\u70b9<\/td><td>\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u51fa\u73b0\u65f6\u8c03\u6574\u4e0d\u8db3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u89c1<\/td><td>\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u540e\uff0c\u5bfb\u627e\u652f\u6301\u6240\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\/\u4fe1\u606f<\/td><td>\u5ffd\u7565\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff1b\u6301\u6709\u4e0d\u826f\u4ed3\u4f4d<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u6c89\u6ca1\u6210\u672c\u8c2c\u8bef<\/td><td>\u56e0\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u8bba\u6587\u6295\u8d44\u800c\u6301\u6709\u4e8f\u635f\u5934\u5bf8<\/td><td>\u5c06\u4e8f\u635f\u4ea4\u6613\u6269\u5927\u5230\u7406\u6027\u9608\u503c\u4e4b\u5916<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u4e8b\u540e\u504f\u89c1<\/td><td>\u89e3\u51b3\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u663e\u800c\u6613\u89c1\u7684<\/td><td>\u9ad8\u4f30\u6280\u80fd\uff1b\u8bef\u5224\u672a\u6765\u89c4\u6a21<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u504f\u5dee\u7684\u5b9e\u9645\u610f\u4e49\u5728\u4e8e\uff0c\u201d<strong>\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406<\/strong>\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u73b0\u8c61\uff1b\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u8ba4\u77e5\u503e\u5411\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u79cd\u503e\u5411\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u89c2\u5bdf\u3001\u6d4b\u91cf\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u901a\u8fc7\u610f\u8bc6\u548c\u7ed3\u6784\u5316\u53cd\u9988\u5f97\u5230\u7ea0\u6b63\u3002\u4e86\u89e3\u54ea\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u6700\u4e3a\u6d3b\u8dc3\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u6bd4\u90a3\u4e9b\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f9d\u9760\u76f4\u89c9\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u66f4\u6709\u80fd\u529b\u505a\u51fa\u6821\u51c6\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u7b80\u7ea6\u3001\u65e0\u969c\u788d\u548c\u65b0\u4ea4\u6613\u5458<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p><strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a<\/strong>\u3001\u767d\u6807\u4e8c\u5143\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5e73\u53f0\uff08\u5982 Leverate \u7684<a href=\"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/%e7%99%bd%e6%a0%87%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba\/\">\u9884\u6d4b\u5e02\u573a\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848<\/a>\uff09\u7684\u53ef\u53ca\u6027\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u4ea4\u6613\u771f\u6b63\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u3002\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fde\u7eed\u4ef7\u683c\u5e02\u573a\u5728\u8ba4\u77e5\u4e0a\u96be\u4ee5\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u81ea\u4fe1\u5730\u53c2\u4e0e \u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u95ee\u9898\u683c\u5f0f\u76f4\u89c2\u6613\u61c2\u3002\u6807\u51c6\u666e\u5c14 500 \u6307\u6570\u5468\u4e94\u4f1a\u6536\u9ad8\u5417\uff1f\u201d\u76f4\u63a5\u6620\u5c04\u51fa\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u6982\u7387\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0e\u4eba\u4eec\u6839\u636e\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u51b3\u5b9a\u662f\u5426\u5e26\u4f1e\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5982\u51fa\u4e00\u8f99\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u79cd\u4fbf\u5229\u6027\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u8ba9 \u201d<strong>\u662f\/\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406<\/strong>\u53d8\u5f97\u7b80\u5355\uff1b\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65b0\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u548c\u6709\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u504f\u89c1\u548c\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u6311\u6218\u540c\u6837\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u6539\u53d8\u7684\u662f\u9996\u6b21\u53c2\u4e0e\u7684\u969c\u788d\u3002\u5bf9\u8ba4\u77e5\u6280\u80fd\u53d1\u5c55\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u81f4\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u8d28\u91cf\u4f1a\u901a\u8fc7\u7ec3\u4e60\u5f97\u5230\u63d0\u9ad8\uff1a\u65e0\u8bba\u8d77\u70b9\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u505a\u51fa 100 \u6b21\u6821\u51c6\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u90fd\u4f1a\u6bd4\u505a\u51fa 10 \u6b21\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u6821\u51c6\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u3002  <\/p>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4-1024x768.png\" alt='\u540d\u4e3a \"\u662f\/\u5426\u5faa\u73af \"\u7684\u5faa\u73af\u6d41\u7a0b\u56fe\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u4ea4\u6613\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u4e94\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff1a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3001\u4e8c\u5143\u95ee\u9898\u3001\u6982\u7387\u3001\u4ea4\u6613\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u6ed1\u70b9\uff09\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8ba4\u77e5\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u7ed3\u679c\u3002' class=\"wp-image-90752\" srcset=\"https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4-1024x768.png 1024w, https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4-480x360.png 480w, https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4-768x576.png 768w, https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4-1536x1152.png 1536w, https:\/\/leverate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/image-4.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"%e5%b8%b8%e8%a7%81%e9%97%ae%e9%a2%98%e8%a7%a3%e7%ad%94\"><strong>\u5e38\u89c1\u95ee\u9898\u89e3\u7b54<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f yes\/no \u4ea4\u6613\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u53c2\u4e0e\u5f62\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u91c7\u53d6\u7acb\u573a\u3002\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u4e8c\u8fdb\u5236\u7684\uff1a\u6bd4\u7279\u5e01\u4f1a\u8fbe\u5230\u76ee\u6807\u4ef7\u683c\u5417\uff1f\u592e\u884c\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u52a0\u606f\uff1f\u4e00\u652f\u7403\u961f\u4f1a\u8d62\u5f97\u6bd4\u8d5b\u5417\uff1f\u7b54\u6848\u8981\u4e48\u662f \u201d\u662f\u201d\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u662f \u201d\u5426\u201d\uff0c\u5408\u7ea6\u5b8c\u5168\u6839\u636e\u8be5\u4e8b\u4ef6\u5728\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u7684\u89e3\u51b3\u60c5\u51b5\u8fdb\u884c\u7ed3\u7b97\u3002\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4ea4\u6613\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u5e02\u573a\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u4ef7\u683c\u76ee\u6807\u3001\u6b62\u635f\u548c\u671f\u9650\u7ba1\u7406\uff1b\u51b3\u7b56\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5224\u65ad\u3002<strong>\u662f\/\u5426\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5fc3\u7406<\/strong>\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e8c\u5143\u7ed3\u679c\u7ed3\u6784\u6fc0\u6d3b\u4e86\u4e00\u5957\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6377\u5f84\u3001\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u60c5\u7eea\u53cd\u5e94\uff0c\u4e0e\u5f00\u653e\u5f0f\u5e02\u573a\u4e2d\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u6377\u5f84\u3001\u504f\u5dee\u548c\u60c5\u7eea\u53cd\u5e94\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002      <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e3a\u4f55\u504f\u7231\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4e0e\u5f00\u653e\u5f0f\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u51b3\u7b56\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56\u80fd\u51cf\u5c11\u8ba4\u77e5\u8d1f\u8377\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5f80\u5f80\u66f4\u4e50\u4e8e\u4f7f\u7528\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56\u3002<strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u4e8c\u5143\u51b3\u7b56<\/strong>\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u4e2a\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\uff08\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5417\uff1f\u8fd9\u79cd\u7b80\u5355\u6027\u964d\u4f4e\u4e86\u5165\u95e8\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u969c\u788d\uff0c\u51b3\u7b56\u611f\u89c9\u66f4\u679c\u65ad\uff0c\u627f\u8bfa\u4e5f\u66f4\u660e\u786e\u3002\u53cc\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8ba4\u77e5\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u4e0e\u90a3\u4e9b\u9700\u8981\u6df1\u601d\u719f\u8651\u5206\u6790\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff08\u7cfb\u7edf 2\uff09\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u9002\u5408\u76f4\u89c2\u3001\u5feb\u901f\u5904\u7406\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\uff08\u7cfb\u7edf 1\uff09\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u5f3a\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u6267\u884c\u901f\u5ea6\u4e5f\u66f4\u5feb\u3002\u662f\/\u5426 \u201d\u7ed3\u6784\u5728\u67b6\u6784\u4e0a\u9002\u5408\u7cfb\u7edf 1 \u5904\u7406\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c31\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u5b83\u80fd\u5728\u5404\u79cd\u4ea4\u6613\u7ecf\u9a8c\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4e2d\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u548c\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u7387\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u5fc3\u7406\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea4\u6613\u51b3\u7b56\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u5fc3\u7406\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\u90fd\u4f1a\u5f71\u54cd\u4ea4\u6613\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u5728<strong>\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b<\/strong>\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5c24\u4e3a\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5728<strong>\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b<\/strong>\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c2\u6982\u7387\u672a\u77e5\uff0c\u8ba4\u77e5\u6377\u5f84\u5360\u4e3b\u5bfc\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u8fc7\u5ea6\u81ea\u4fe1\u4f1a\u5938\u5927\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5bf9\u81ea\u8eab\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u7684\u4fe1\u5fc3\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ed3\u4f4d\u6bd4\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u66f4\u5927\u3001\u5bf9\u51b2\u66f4\u5c11\u3002\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\u4f1a\u626d\u66f2\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u7684\u5165\u5e02\u51b3\u7b56\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u6982\u7387\u52a0\u6743\uff09\u548c\u4e8f\u635f\u540e\u884c\u4e3a\uff08\u901a\u8fc7\u76c8\u4e8f\u5e73\u8861\u6548\u5e94\uff09\u3002\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u5c06\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u951a\u5b9a\u5728\u8fd1\u671f\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u751f\u52a8\u4e8b\u4ef6\u800c\u975e\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u3002\u786e\u8ba4\u504f\u5dee\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u5b9a\u540e\u5bfb\u627e\u652f\u6301\u5176\u6240\u9009\u5934\u5bf8\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6839\u636e\u4e0d\u786e\u8ba4\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u8fdb\u884c\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u504f\u5dee\u5e76\u975e\u4e2a\u6027\u7f3a\u9677\uff1b\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u666e\u904d\u7684\u8ba4\u77e5\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5f71\u54cd\u7740\u6240\u6709\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u3002\u4e86\u89e3\u5b83\u4eec\u662f\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u660e\u667a\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\u3002      <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\u7684\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5fc3\u7406\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u5373\u5bf9\u635f\u5931\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u7684\u4f53\u9a8c\u5f3a\u5ea6\u7ea6\u4e3a\u540c\u7b49\u6536\u76ca\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5feb\u4e50\u7684\u4e24\u500d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ed3\u8bba\u7531\u7279\u6c83\u65af\u57fa\u548c\u5361\u5c3c\u66fc\u5728\u300a\u524d\u666f\u7406\u8bba\u300b\uff081979 \u5e74\uff09\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u548c\u73b0\u573a\u73af\u5883\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u5e7f\u6cdb\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002\u5728\u4ea4\u6613\u4e2d\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u538c\u6076\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u51e0\u79cd\u7279\u5f81\u884c\u4e3a\uff1a\u8fc7\u4e45\u5730\u6301\u6709\u4e8f\u635f\u5934\u5bf8\uff08\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u635f\u5931\u662f \u201d\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u201d\uff09\uff0c\u8fc7\u65e9\u5730\u5e73\u4ed3\u83b7\u80dc\u5934\u5bf8\uff08\u4ee5\u5728\u6536\u76ca\u9006\u8f6c\u4e4b\u524d\u9501\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u4e8f\u635f\u540e\u7acb\u5373\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u5927\u6216\u66f4\u5192\u9669\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ee5\u8bd5\u56fe\u6062\u590d\u5230\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u70b9\u3002\u5728<strong>\u201d\u662f\u201d\/\u201d\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613<\/strong>\u4e2d\uff0c\u5904\u7f6e\u6548\u5e94\uff08\u6301\u6709\u4e8f\u635f\u5934\u5bf8\uff0c\u5356\u51fa\u8d62\u5bb6\u5934\u5bf8\uff09\u65e0\u6cd5\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u7ed3\u679c\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u51b3\uff1b\u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u635f\u5931\u89c4\u907f\u4e3b\u8981\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u89e3\u51b3\u540e\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u4e8f\u635f\u540e\u5f3a\u8feb\u6027\u5730\u91cd\u65b0\u5165\u5e02\u3002\u8fd9\u79cd \u201d\u91cd\u542f\u6548\u5e94 \u201d<strong>\u662f \u201d\u662f\/\u5426 \u201d\u4ea4\u6613\u5fc3\u7406<\/strong>\u4e2d\u6700\u72ec\u7279\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002   <\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u51b3\u7b56\uff1f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n<p>\u4ea4\u6613\u8005<strong>\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b<\/strong>\u505a\u51fa<strong>\u51b3\u7b56\u65f6<\/strong>\uff0c\u4f1a\u7efc\u5408\u8fd0\u7528\u5206\u6790\u63a8\u7406\u548c\u8ba4\u77e5\u542f\u53d1\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e24\u8005\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5e73\u8861\u53d7\u65f6\u95f4\u538b\u529b\u3001\u8ba4\u77e5\u8d1f\u8377\u548c\u60c5\u7eea\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u5f53\u4f60\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u548c\u4fe1\u606f\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed4\u7ec6\u6743\u8861\u8bc1\u636e\u3001\u4f30\u8ba1\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u6839\u636e\u65b0\u4fe1\u606f\u66f4\u65b0\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u505a\u51fa\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u95f4\u7d27\u8feb\u6216\u8ba4\u77e5\u8d44\u6e90\u8017\u5c3d\u65f6\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u4f1a\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u4f9d\u8d56\u542f\u53d1\u5f0f\u65b9\u6cd5\uff08\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u3001\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u3001\u60c5\u611f\uff09\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u867d\u7136\u901f\u5ea6\u5feb\uff0c\u4f46\u5b58\u5728\u7cfb\u7edf\u6027\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u7279\u7279\u6d1b\u514b\uff08Tetlock\uff09\u5bf9\u8d85\u7ea7\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u8005\u5728\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u6301\u7eed\u826f\u597d\u51b3\u7b56\u7684\u5173\u952e\u4e60\u60ef\u662f\uff1a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ee5\u7279\u5b9a\u767e\u5206\u6bd4\u4f30\u8ba1\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u63a8\u79fb\u8ddf\u8e2a\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u79ef\u6781\u5bfb\u627e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u8bc1\u636e\uff0c\u5e76\u9010\u6b65\u66f4\u65b0\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u5927\u5e45\u8df3\u5347\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e60\u60ef\u5e76\u4e0d\u80fd\u6d88\u9664\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff1b\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u4e1c\u897f\u80fd\u6d88\u9664\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0e\u4ec5\u51ed\u76f4\u89c9\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u5224\u65ad\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u7ed3\u679c\u66f4\u7b26\u5408\u5b9e\u9645\u7ed3\u679c\u3002    <\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<p><strong>\u514d\u8d23\u58f0\u660e\uff1a<br><\/strong>\u672c\u5185\u5bb9\u57fa\u4e8e\u591a\u79cd\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\uff0c\u4ec5\u4f9b\u6559\u80b2\u4e4b\u7528\u3002\u4e0d\u6784\u6210\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6216\u6295\u8d44\u5efa\u8bae\u3002 <\/p>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h3>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"-2\"><\/h2>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h3>\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h3>\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6bcf\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613\u6700\u7ec8\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\u4e0d\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002\u4f46\u5e76\u975e\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u7ed3\u6784\u90fd\u5c06\u8fd9\u79cd\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u7f6e\u4e8e\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5fc3\u7406\u6846\u67b6\u4e2d\u3002&#8221;\u662f\/\u5426 &#8221;\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u552f\u4e00\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u67d0\u4e00\u4e8b\u4ef6\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u4ea4\u6613\u5c06\u51b3\u7b56\u7b80\u5316\u4e3a\u8ba4\u77e5\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u4ef7\u683c\u76ee\u6807\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u6b62\u635f\u6821\u51c6\u3002\u6ca1\u6709\u5927\u5c0f\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u6982\u7387\u4f30\u8ba1\u548c\u627f\u8bfa\u3002      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":90746,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1087,1095,1094],"tags":[1108,1169,1138,1354,1341,1334],"class_list":["post-90835","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","category-product","category-fintech","tag-1108","tag-1169","tag-1138","tag-1354","tag-1341","tag-1334"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90835","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90835"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90835\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90839,"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90835\/revisions\/90839"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90835"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90835"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/leverate.com\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90835"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}